View source for Social:State collapse

{{short description|Catastrophic failure and downfall of a government}}

'''State collapse''' is the breakdown of government authority in maintaining law and order, leading to a situation in which political order needs to be reconstituted in some form.<ref name=":2">{{Cite book |last=Zartman |first=I. William |title=Collapsed States: The Disintegration and Restoration of Legitimate Authority |publisher=L. Rienner Publishers |year=1995 |isbn=1-55587-518-1 |location=Boulder and London |pages=1,8–11 |chapter=Introduction: Posing the Problem of State Collapse}}</ref> It is often used to describe extreme situations in which state institutions are no longer able to function.<ref name=":1">{{cite journal |last1=Lambach |first1=Daniel |last2=Johais |first2=Eva |last3=Bayer |first3=Markus |year=2015 |title=Conceptualising state collapse: An institutionalist approach |url=https://tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/01436597.2015.1038338 |journal=Third World Quarterly |volume=36 |issue=7 |pages=1299–1315 |doi=10.1080/01436597.2015.1038338 |s2cid=153598699}}</ref> Rather than a temporary disruption such as a riot or a coup, a '''collapsed state''' is the result of a longer-term degenerative process, in which a ruling regime is no longer able to satisfy the demands of societal groups.<ref name=":2" /> When a new regime moves in, often led by the military, [[Social:Civil society|civil society]] typically fails to rally around the central government, and societal actors fend for themselves at the local level.<ref name=":2" /> Neighboring states interfere politically, sometimes harboring dissidents within their borders, and the informal economy becomes dominant, operating beyond the control of the state and further undermining potential reconstruction.<ref name=":2" />

== Definitions and examples ==
While the definitions of "[[Social:Failed state|failed state]]" and "[[Social:Fragile state|fragile state]]" have been contested for being "too broad and too vague",<ref name=":1" /> foreign policy experts such as Charles T. Call have advocated focusing on extreme cases of "collapsed states" instead, defined as "countries whose state apparatus ceases to exist for a period of several months".<ref name=":3">{{Cite journal |last=Call |first=Charles T. |date=2008 |title=The Fallacy of the 'Failed State' |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/20455126 |journal=Third World Quarterly |volume=29 |issue=8 |pages=1491–1507 |doi=10.1080/01436590802544207 |jstor=20455126|s2cid=153402082 }}</ref><ref name=":1" /> According to Call, between 1995 and 2005, the main examples of collapsed states included Somalia, which had a sustained collapse from 1990 to 2004; the [[Place:Yugoslavia|Federal Republic of Yugoslavia]], which collapsed in 1991; the [[Place:Soviet Union|Soviet Union]] in 1991; and possibly Afghanistan from 1992 to 1995.<ref name=":3" />

Recent scholarship has focused on identifying measurable dimensions of state capacity, building on the institutionalist approach associated with [[Biography:Max Weber|Max Weber]].<ref name=":1" /> Daniel Lambach, Eva Johais, and Markus Bayer have thus defined state collapse as the inability to make and enforce binding rules; maintain a [[Social:Monopoly on violence|monopoly on violence]]; and collect taxes.<ref name=":1" /> Using this framework, Lambach et al. identified 17 collapsed states between 1960 to 2007.<ref name=":1" /> The majority of cases were in sub-Saharan Africa, involving armed rebellions in countries including Chad, Uganda, Libera, Somalia, Angola, Zaire, Guinea-Bissau, and Sierra Leone, plus Congo-Kinshasa, which collapsed following decolonization from Belgium.<ref name=":1" /> The dissolution of the Soviet Union led to state collapse in Georgia, Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Tajikistan.<ref name=":1" /> Other cases of state collapse included Laos, following an attack backed by the United States which led to partitioning of the country into spheres of influence; Lebanon, which went through a full-scale civil war; and Afghanistan, where insurgents challenged the communist regime and moved against Soviet intervention.<ref name=":1" />

==Theories and causes==

In 2020, Johais, Bayer and Lambach proposed a dynamic model of the causes of state collapse.<ref name=":4">{{cite journal |last1=Johais |first1=Eva |last2=Bayer |first2=Markus |last3=Lambach |first3=Daniel |year=2020 |title=How do states collapse? Towards a model of causal mechanisms |url=https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/14781158.2020.1780204?journalCode=cpar20 |journal=Global Change, Peace & Security |volume=32 |issue=2 |pages=179–197 |doi=10.1080/14781158.2020.1780204 |s2cid=221053229}}</ref> In their article in ''Global Change, Peace & Security'', they argue that a state collapse happens when 1) opposition groups arm themselves and mobilise against the government; 2) political transitions such as decolonisation or regime change cause existing power structures to be questioned; 3) politics prolong power struggles and undermine existing institutions; 4) repression causes extreme distrust between rulers and the rest of society; 5) factionalism obstructs strengthening of state policies; 6) loss of cohesion within the ruling elite erodes the monopolisation of violence, rule-making, and tax collection; and 7) external interventions contribute to destabilisation.<ref name=":4" />

===Cyclical theories===

Islamic scholar [[Biography:Ibn Khaldun|Ibn Khaldun]] (1332–1406) produced a general theory of state collapse, transforming the study of history into a "new science".<ref name="Saunders1966">J.J. Saunders, review of 'Ibn Khaldun's Philosophy of History' by Muhsin Mahdi, "History and Theory" vol 5, no 3, (1966), pp. 322-347.</ref> In his eyes, dynasties repeatedly become "sedentary, senile, coercive, pompous, subservient to desire ... liable to divisions in the dynasty." Group feeling ([[Religion:Asabiyyah|asabiyyah]], [[Groupthink|groupthink]]) disappears as the dynasty grows senile. After three generations a new invading clique, "restless, alert and courageous", will cause the old dynasty to collapse<ref>''The [[Finance:Muqaddimah|Muqaddimah]]'', Routledge, 1978, pp. 244-255.</ref> in accordance with the principle in the Book of Exodus, chapter 20, verse four: God "visits the sins of the fathers onto their children, even unto the third and fourth generation of those that hate Him". Ibn Khaldun was fatalistic: "This senility is a chronic disease which cannot be cured because it is something natural".<ref>Ibn Khaldun, ''The Muqaddimah'' Routledge, 1978, p. 245.</ref> Professor Geoff Mulgan discusses Ibn Khaldun in detail and agrees on the timescale: "There are obvious parallels between the lifespans of individuals and those of ruling groups."<ref>Geoff Mulgan, ''Good and bad power'', Penguin, 2007, p. 199.</ref>

In the case of the USSR, a Marxist Revolutionary wave had formed in which several subordinate regimes in Eastern Europe and Africa collapsed almost simultaneously with the central power.<ref>Mark Katz, ''Revolutions and Revolutionary Waves'', St Martin's Press, 1997, pp 83-87</ref>

===Mass psychology===

The Japanese philosopher [[Biography:Hajime Tanabe|Hajime Tanabe]] points to the quasi-religious role of the state to mediate between mortal individuals and the eternal universe, so that states regularly collapse; like religious figures, they must undergo a process of death and [[Unsolved:Resurrection|resurrection]]. In his view this may account for the perennial popularity of states because they regularly demonstrate their ability to transcend death.<ref>Ian Mcgreal, ''Great Thinkers of the Eastern World'', Harper Collins, 1995, p, 388.</ref>

Psychologists<ref>Robert Alter, "The Masada complex", ''Commentary magazine'', 1 July 1973.</ref><ref>[[Biography:Jerrold Post|Jerrold M. Post]], editor, ''The Psychological Assessment of Political Leaders'', University of Michigan Press, 2003, p. 345.</ref> speak of a "[[Earth:Masada|Masada]] complex" that may drive fanatics to a suicidal, violent last-ditch stand. In a totalitarian state or an [[Social:Ideocracy|ideocracy]], individuals may develop a closed mind and an [[Philosophy:Authoritarian personality|authoritarian personality]], making them more likely to resist threats to the incumbent regime.<ref>Piekalkiewicz and Penn, ''The Politics of Ideocracy'', SUNY Press, 1995, p. 45.</ref> 

According to psychologist [[Biography:Erich Fromm|Erich Fromm]] it is possible for an entire nation, if they all share the same vices and errors, to become insane—a ''"folie a millions"''. Inhumane treatment by the rulers inevitably leads to collapse; <blockquote> Despots and ruling cliques can succeed in dominating and exploiting their fellow man ... but their subjects react ... with apathy, impairment of intelligence, initiative and skills ... or they react by the accumulation of such hate and destructiveness as to bring about an end to themselves, their rulers and their system. ... if man lives under conditions contrary to his nature and to human growth and sanity, he cannot help reacting.'<ref>Erich Fromm, ''The Sane Society'', Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1979, pp. 18-19.</ref> </blockquote>

===Democratic decay=== 

Mark Blyth alleges that a democracy can also collapse "if voters don't get what they want and merely affirm the status quo." In these circumstances, voters deprived of real choice may opt for the least democratic option.<ref>Mark Blyth, "When Does Democracy Fail?", ''Washington Post'', 15 December 2016.</ref> In a divided, collapsing country lacking civil institutions, or in a closed country attempting reform and openness, the process of democratisation is 'dangerous' and may hasten collapse.<ref> Marina Ottaway in Collapsed states, ed I William Zartman, pages 239-244</ref><ref> Ian Bremmer, The J Curve, Simon and Schuster 2006, p79</ref>

===Increasing coercion and dictatorship===

In the USSR and Apartheid South Africa, the state became 'evil or tyrannical... destroying the institutions of civil society';<ref> Collapsed States, ed I. William Zartman, Lynne Riener Publishers, 1999, p 7 </ref> and in Uganda between 1970 and 1991, Siad Barre changed from 'prophetic rule, to autocracy, to tyranny'.<ref> Hussein Mohamed Adam in Collapsed States, ed I. William Zartman, Lynne Riener Publishers, 1999, p 71 </ref> In this context John Kenneth Galbraith regrets the "very slight" amount of research on the nature of political power.<ref>John Kenneth Galbraith, ''The Anatomy of Power'', Hamish Hamilton, 1984, p. 4.</ref> Power regularly passes to those who "assert the unknown with the greatest conviction... not necessarily related to intelligence."<ref>John Kenneth Galbraith, ''The Anatomy of Power'', Hamish Hamilton, 1984, p. 41.</ref> What we call "power" is, "in practice, the illusion of power."<ref>John Kenneth Galbraith, ''The Anatomy of Power'', Hamish Hamilton, 1984, p. 70.</ref> Discussing how the "powerless" [[Biography:Mahatma Gandhi|Mahatma Gandhi]] brought about the collapse of militarily "powerful" British India, Galbraith reflects that power, mostly seen as a possession of states and their leaders, would be better viewed as a flow, into and away from "those instruments that enforce it".<ref>John Kenneth Galbraith, ''The Anatomy of Power'', Hamish Hamilton, 1984, p. 89.</ref> Martin Wight deplored the "demonic concentrations of power" of the defeated countries in the two world wars. A devout Christian, he saw their "triumphant self-destruction" as "Antichrist moments".<ref>Ian Hall, ''The International Thought of Martin Wight'', Palgrave, 2006, p. 70</ref>

===Messianic leadership style===

According to political scientists, in an [[Social:Ideocracy|ideocracy]] there must be a ruthless charismatic leader: "the leader is the movement",<ref>Piekalkiewicz and Penn, ''Politics of Ideocracy'', State University of New York, 1995, p133</ref> and all individuals are required to submit to, and worship him.<ref>[[Biography:Erich Fromm|Erich Fromm]], ''The Sane Society'', Routledge and Kegan Paul, 1955, p. 237.</ref> "Followers who lead barren, insecure, frustrated lives obey the leader, not through faith in his vision of a 'Promised land', but because he leads them away from their unwanted selves".<ref>Eric Hoffer, ''The True Believer'', Harper Perennial 2010, p 100, 119</ref> When collapse threatens he may insist on a "fight to the finish".

Hitler, according to Walter Langer<ref>''The Mind of Adolf Hitler'', Pan, 1972, p 33, 55</ref> had a [[Philosophy:Messiah complex|Messiah complex]] and saw himself as the "Saviour of Germany" who performed "miracles" with the economy.<ref>Sebastian Haffner, The Meaning of Hitler, Phoenix 2002, p 27-30</ref> He was unnaturally fond of his mother, to the extent that Germany became a "mother symbol".<ref>Walter Langer, ''The Mind of Adolf Hitler'', Pan 1972, p 155.</ref> His drive to destroy (the Jews, communism, Europe) was an unconscious attempt to resolve his [[Philosophy:Oedipus complex|Oedipus complex]] and the injustices of his childhood.<ref>Walter Langer, ''The Mind of Adolf Hitler'', Pan 1972, p 157</ref> He "dismantled the German state ... and replaced it with a war machine".<ref>Sebastian Haffner, ''The Meaning of Hitler'', Pelican 2002, p. 40, 42.</ref> He was swept along by a tide of events.<ref>Ian Hall, ''The international thought of Martin Wight'', Palgrave 2006, p 47</ref>

Mussolini, according to Denis Mack Smith, "was an actor, playing the part that Italians wanted him to be".<ref>''Mussolini'', Phoenix, 1993, p112-15</ref> He was vindictive, sadistic, impulsive, proud and cruel, full of "demonic wilfulness" and did not know right from wrong. When in 1944 he led a [[Social:Puppet state|puppet state]] in northern Italy, he "divided Italy in two and initiated 18 months of terrible civil war."<ref>Denis Mack Smith, ''Mussolini'', Phoenix 1993, p 300</ref> Ken Livingstone has compared Slobodan Milosevic to Hitler for his racism and expansionist goals.<ref>'Why we are not wrong to compare Milosevic to Hitler', ''Independent'', 20 April 1999</ref> Saddam Hussein, who also suffered from a Messiah complex,<ref>Jerrold M Post, ''The psychological assessment of political leaders'', University of Michigan Press, 2003, p 354</ref> was similar: "Hitler was not one of a kind. As long as millions of people passionately long for his return, it is only a matter of time until their wish is fulfilled."<ref>Hans Enzensburger, "Perspective on Saddam Hussein", ''Los Angeles Times'', 14 February 1991.</ref>

Nicolae Ceaușescu "went mad" as early as 1971 according to John Sweeney, when, "blind to his own Messianism", he attempted to recreate North Korean [[Philosophy:Totalitarianism|totalitarianism]] in Romania.<ref>John Sweeney, ''The life and evil times of Nicolae Ceausescu'', Hutchinson, 1991, p99</ref> He "played the king" and the role of "chosen one" and "saviour".<ref>John Sweeney, ''The life and evil times of Nicolae Ceausescu'', Hutchinson, 1991, p155</ref>

===Neglect, corruption and incompetence===

Managerial incapacity, failing to meet popular needs, causes dissatisfaction. If the government avoids necessary choices, practices only defensive politics, and represses the protests with tyranny, the state is likely to implode. This was the case in Chad when it collapsed in 1980, and in [[Earth:Ghana|Ghana]] in 1981.<ref> Collapsed States, ed I. William Zartman, Lynne Riener Publishers, 1999, pp 7, 10, 15, 51 </ref>

Czar Nicholas II, crowned at an early age, 26, was untrained in governance.<ref>John Van der Kiste, ''The Romanovs'', Sutton, 1998, p154</ref> Grand Duke Vladimir's son Cyril was a rival candidate for the throne.<ref>John Van der Kiste, ''The Romanovs'', Sutton, 1998, p 175</ref> Liberals and revolutionaries challenged his autocracy.<ref>Van der Kiste, ''The Romanovs'', Sutton, 1998, p 176</ref> By 1916 he had become apathetic, dominated by the Czarina and Rasputin,<ref>Van der Kiste, ''The Romanovs'', Sutton, 1998, p 187</ref> a "Christ in the image of the rejected and agonizing monarchy".<ref>[[Biography:Leon Trotsky|Leon Trotsky]], ''The history of the Russian Revolution'', translated  by Max Eastman, Pluto Press 1977, p 84</ref>

Few political scientists credibly predicted the collapse of the Soviet Union or agreed on its causes:<ref>Joshua S Goldstein and Jon C Pevehouse, ''International Relations'', Longman, 2007, p. 43; Richard K Hermann, ''Ending the Cold War'', Palgrave, 2004, p. 2.</ref> in hindsight, Leonid Fituni lists 'poverty, hunger, regional conflicts, ethnic wars, deindustrialisation, foreign debt, elite corruption, disease epidemics, refugee problems, environmental issues' as causes.<ref> Collapsed States, ed I. William Zartman, Lynne Riener Publishers, 1999, p 143 </ref>
===Military takeover===

Armed forces may take over a collapsing state by coup d'etat. Some military regimes are able to reverse a downward spiral, but if they fail to do so, must rely ever more on coercion and control. The regime 'falls into the vacuum it has created'. This occurred in Uganda under Idi Amin in 1979; and in Somalia in 1991.<ref> Collapsed States, ed I. William Zartman, Lynne Riener Publishers, 1999, pp 8, 36, 69 </ref>

===Absence of legitimacy===

Legitimacy refers to popular belief in, or acceptance of, an authority; thus it includes any leader achieving popularity at any given moment.<ref> Barry Schutz in Collapsed States, ed I. William Zartman, Lynne Riener Publishers, 1999, p 110 </ref> When the state fails to reward the people with civil rights, participation, accountability and oversight, legitimacy fades and collapse may occur<ref>Collapsed States, ed I. William Zartman, Lynne Riener Publishers, 1999, pp 7, 34 </ref> In Afghanistan, the non-inclusive 2004 constitution, the international coalition's focus on power consolidation at the expense of democracy, and president Ashraf Ghani's narrow circle of support, caused the regime to fall in 2021 as it 'lacked legitimacy in the eyes of the people'.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/the-collapse-of-afghanistan/ | title=The Collapse of Afghanistan }}</ref> In the USSR the 1991 Soviet coup d'etat attempt was foiled, not by the Gorbachev regime but by Boris Yeltsin and other reformers: Gorbachev never recovered from this blow to his legitimacy<ref>Ian Bremmer, The J Curve, Simon and Schuster 2006, p14</ref>

===Newly independent states===

Such states are especially vulnerable to collapse as the people may not accept or understand the principles of legitimacy or nationhood. In Mozambique, the FRELIMO government lost legitimacy when the army refused to fight in the civil war.<ref> Barry Schutz in Collapsed States, p 109 </ref> State collapse is prevalent in much of post-colonial Africa and has occurred in two waves: in the 1980's, the second decade of independence, in Chad, Uganda and Ghana; and a decade later, in Somalia and Liberia.<ref> Collapsed States, pp2, 3 </ref>

===Other states subvert or invade===

Collapse is marked by the loss of control of political space. Neighbour states may intervene directly in a collapsing state; or they may host dissident movements.<ref> Collapsed States, Zartman, p9 </ref> The collapse of Afghanistan in 2021 was only possible because the Taliban were sheltered in Pakistan.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.journalofdemocracy.org/articles/the-collapse-of-afghanistan/ | title=The Collapse of Afghanistan }}</ref> Idi Amin was forced out of Uganda by Ugandan exiles combined with the invasion by Tanzania.<ref> Gilbert Khadiagala in Collapsed States, ed Zartman, p 38 </ref>

===Economic collapse or decline===

In a collapsing state the economy may shrink because a) the Black economy overshadows the formal, more controlled economy, and b) peripheral areas may prefer to use a neighbour state's currency, as in Chad, Ethiopia in the 1980's and Zaire in the 1990's.<ref> Collapsed States, I. William Zartman, Lynne Riener, 1999, p 9 </ref> In the case of post-WW1 Austria, the loss of pre-war markets in the Austro-Hungarian empire encouraged fears of economic decline, thus the idea of Anschluss with Germany, and Austria's downfall by German invasion in 1938.<ref>  https://academic.oup.com/ia/article-abstract/17/3/446/2710383?redirectedFrom=fulltext&login=false </ref>

In the Soviet Union, the dramatic drop of the price of oil in 1985 and 1986<ref name='AEI-Gaidar-Grain and Oil'>{{cite web|last=Gaidar |first=Yegor |title=The Soviet Collapse: Grain and Oil |work=On the Issues: AEI online |publisher=American Enterprise Institute |date=19 April 2007 |url=http://www.aei.org/issue/25991 |access-date=9 July 2009 |url-status=dead |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20090722091512/http://www.aei.org/issue/25991 |archive-date=22 July 2009  }} (Edited version of a speech given 13 November 2006 at the American Enterprise Institute.)</ref> and the Reagan administration's escalation of the arms race ('they can't sustain military spending the way we can') overstretched the USSR economy:<ref>Dmitri Volkogonov, The Rise and Fall of the Soviet Empire, Harper Collins, 1997, p488</ref> while the economy of apartheid South Africa was weakened by sanctions, banking and other boycotts, divestment and shareholder activism<ref> Ian Bremmer, The J Curve, Simon and Schuster 2006, p165</ref>

===Ethnic and regional tensions===

Loss of territorial control is a 'vital characteristic' of state collapse.<ref> Gilbert Khadiagala in Collapsed States, I. William Zartman, Lynne Riener, 1999, p 35 </ref> If the components of society are neglected they may oppose the centre of power and fend for themselves. If civil war results, the state loses its [[Social:Monopoly on violence|Monopoly on violence]], and force becomes privatised under [[Social:Warlord|warlord]]s, paramilitary or guerrilla units.<ref> failed and Collapsed States in the International System, African Studies Centre, Leiden and others, introduction </ref><ref> Collapsed States, I. William Zartman, Lynne Riener, 1999, p 8, 10 </ref> The Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia collapsed in the 1990s, when its six socialist republics broke apart to become separate countries; though Slovenia seceded peacefully, civil wars broke out in Croatia, Bosnia and Kosovo, then part of Serbia, due to nationalist elites manipulating communal tensions.<ref> State Collapse in a new Theoretical Framework. The case of Yugoslavia, Badredine Arfi, International Journal of Sociology, vol 28 no3, 1998 </ref><ref> Ian Bremmer, The J Curve, Simon and Schuster 2006, p182</ref>
 
The ethnic discrimination of the apartheid system in South Africa ended through [[Social:Negotiation|negotiation]]s between the governing National Party, the African National Congress, and other political organizations, resulting in South Africa's first non-racial election, which was won by the African National Congress.<ref> Sipho Shezi in Collapsed States, ed I. William Zartman, Lynne Riener, 1999, p 191-204 </ref>

===Foreign war===

'Misbegotten wars, when serving as culmination points of more general national decline, can be fatal', says Robert Kaplan. Participation in [[Social:World War I|World War I]] was a decisive factor in the collapse of Ottoman Turkey, the Austro-Hungarian empire<ref>{{cite news | url=https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/downside-imperial-collapse | title=The Downside of Imperial Collapse | newspaper=Foreign Affairs | date=14 November 2022 }}</ref> and Russia in 1917.<ref>{{cite journal | url=https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/slavic-review/article/1917-revolution-as-demobilization-and-state-collapse/E9C85596FBF6C8E74ED87ABDAEC7563E | doi=10.1017/slr.2017.178 | title=1917: Revolution as Demobilization and State Collapse | year=2017 | last1=Lohr | first1=Eric | last2=Sanborn | first2=Joshua | journal=Slavic Review | volume=76 | issue=3 | pages=703–709 | s2cid=165940414 }}</ref>

===Wars of succession===

In an absolute monarchy, a disputed succession to the throne can cause the 'utter collapse of royal authority'. The Wars of the Roses ended the Lancastrian dynasty at the battle of Tewkesbury in 1471; and led to the downfall of Richard III and the Yorkist line at the battle of Bosworth in 1485.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.publishersweekly.com/9780670026678 | title=The Wars of the Roses: The Fall of the Plantagenets and the Rise of the Tudors by Dan Jones }}</ref>

===Dependence on outside support===

In Angola in the 1980's, aid from the USSR was the 'principal cause of collapse', turning the ruling elite into unpopular 'worshippers of foreign divinities'. Soon afterwards the USSR itself collapsed, in part due to the 'demands of the main sponsor', the USA.<ref> Leonid Fituni in Collapsed States, ed I William Zartman, 1999, pages 148-9</ref> The 2010 Haiti earthquake caused a surge in aid which: created a huge parallel government run by NGOs and contractors; destroyed weak institutions; inflated wages, rents, and prices beyond the reach of local businesses; and gave the Haitian government no incentive to undertake necessary reforms.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.thenews-chronicle.com/how-not-to-help-a-country-aid-and-the-collapse-of-haiti/ | title=How not to help a country: Aid and the collapse of Haiti | date=18 September 2022 }}</ref>

==Regeneration==
Either the incumbent regime itself, or an extremist [[Philosophy:Reactionary|reactionary]] group dissatisfied with its performance, may attempt to postpone or avoid collapse by regenerating popular support; 'At the end of a dynasty there often appears some show of power giving the impression that the dynasty's senility has been made to disappear. It lights up brilliantly just before it is extinguished, like a candle which leaps up brilliantly just before it is put out'.<ref>Ibn Khaldun, ''The Muqaddimah'', Routledge 1978, p. 246.</ref><ref> [[Hussein M. Adam in Collapsed States, ed I William Zartman, pages 69- 78 </ref>
 
To do so they may have to take 'heroic' measures; 'Throughout history there have always been in the event of defeat two paths of action; the one aims at saving enough of the substance as possible. the other at leaving behind a stirring legend'.<ref>Sebastain Haffner, ''The meaning of Hitler'', Pelican, 2000, p. 153.</ref> According to Piekalkiewicz and Penn, they may rethink or adapt the ideology, or replace it by a completely new set of ideals.<ref>Piekalkiewicz and Penn, ''The Politics of Ideocracy'', SUNY Press, 1995, p. 163.</ref> For example, in Poland, according to Piekalkiewicz and Penn, communist ideocracy failed in 1980; the recognition of Lech Walesa's [[Philosophy:Solidarity|Solidarity]] Trade Union led to a military coup and authoritarian military rule.

According to Sabrina Ramet, regenerative changes occurred in Yugoslavia in the 1980s when the communist ideology was replaced by a nationalist drive for a Greater Serbia and by an anti-bureaucratic revolution in support of Slobodan Milosevic.<ref>Sabrina Ramet, ''The three Yugoslavias'', Indiana UP, 2006, p. 322.</ref> 
The Young Turk coup of 1908,<ref>Tony Barber, 'Decline and Fall', review of ''Shattering Empires'' by Michael Reynolds, ''Financial Times'', 4 April 2011.</ref> the 1991 Soviet coup d'etat attempt,<ref>Dmitri Volkogonov, ''The Rise and Fall of the Soviet Empire'', Harper Collins, 1997, pp. 485-7.</ref> and the financial/industrial reforms of Sergei Witte in Imperial Russia,<ref>Tony Barber, 'Decline and Fall', review of ''Tales of Imperial Russia'' by Francis Wcislo (sic), ''Financial Times'', 4 April 2011.</ref> were all aimed at regenerating causes which were nearing collapse.

Marina Ottaway<ref>Marina Ottaway, "Rebuilding State Institutions in Collapsed States", ''[[Social:Development and Change|Development and Change]]'', 33 (5), 2002.</ref> discusses the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian Empire and [[Place:Ottoman Empire|Ottoman Empire]] in 1918, British India in 1947, the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, the collapse of South Africa's white supremacist government in 1993, of [[Place:Czechoslovakia|Czechoslovakia]] the following year, and of [[Place:Yugoslavia|Yugoslavia]].

==Possible consequences of collapse==
State collapse is 'not necessarily anarchy'.<ref> ''Collapsed States'' edited I. William Zartman, Lynne Riener Publishers, 1995 page 1</ref>

===[[Social:Failed state|Failed state]]===

If attempts at restructuring from within or without are unsuccessful, a long-term absence of a viable government results. Services are absent and national borders are unprotected, as in Somalia, Yemen and South Sudan.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/failed-states | title=Failed States 2022 }}</ref> A failed state can fragment, be taken over by outside forces, or descend into chaos.<ref> Ian Bremmer, The J Curve, Simon and Schuster 2006, p9</ref>

===Annexation by another state===

As in the Austrian Anschluss of 1938.

===Fragmentation===

The partition of India in 1947 led to the creation of two independent nations, India and Pakistan.<ref>{{cite book |title=Partition (n), 7. b |publisher=Oxford English Dictionary |edition=3rd |year=2005 |quote=The division of British India into India and Pakistan, achieved in 1947.}}</ref> When Ottoman Turkey collapsed at the end of [[Social:World War I|World War I]], it lost territory, including what became [[Place:Syria|Syria]], Iraq and Palestine; the collapse of the Austro-Hungarian empire gave rise to [[Place:Czechoslovakia|Czechoslovakia]], Hungary and the Austrian Republic, while Slovenia and Croatia became part of [[Place:Yugoslavia|Yugoslavia]]. Nazi Germany in 1945 fragmented into East and West Germany, while [[Place:Pomerania|Pomerania]] and [[Place:Silesia|Silesia]] became part of Poland. The USSR breakup led to regional wars in the newly created states of Tajikistan, Moldova, [[Place:Azerbaijan|Azerbaijan]] and [[Place:Georgia (country)|Georgia (country)]].<ref> Ian Bremmer, The J Curve, Simon and Schuster 2006, p127</ref>

===Genocide===

The prospect, and chaos, of state collapse provides fearful elites with motive and opportunity to kill en masse (though the planning and implementation of genocide may be hampered by reduced resources).<ref>{{cite journal | url=https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/13691481211044654 | doi=10.1177/13691481211044654 | title=State failure, genocide and politicide reconsidered | year=2021 | last1=Uzonyi | first1=Gary | journal=The British Journal of Politics and International Relations | s2cid=239191483 }}</ref> When defeat appeared inevitable, Hitler ordered the killing of invalids, Gypsies, Russians and Jews in the Final solution.<ref>Sebastian Haffner, ''The Meaning of Hitler'', Pelican 2002, chapter on 'Crimes'</ref> In Ottoman Turkey, estimates for the death toll in the Armenian genocide vary between 300,000 and 1.5 million.<ref>Tony Barber, 'Decline and Fall', Financial Times, 4 April 2015</ref>

The partition of India displaced between 10 and 12 million Sikhs, Hindus and Muslims, creating overwhelming refugee crises; there was large-scale violence, with estimates of loss of life accompanying or preceding the partition disputed and varying between several hundred thousand and two million{{sfn|Talbot|Singh|2009|p=2}}{{efn|"The death toll remains disputed with figures ranging from 200,000 to 2 million."{{sfn|Talbot|Singh|2009|p=2}}}} . In the former Yugoslavia collapse led to state failure.<ref>Ian Bremmer, The J Curve, Simon and Schuster 2006, pages 188-9</ref> [[Social:Ethnic cleansing|Ethnic cleansing]] and genocide erupted, including the [[Social:Srebrenica massacre|Srebrenica massacre]] and Bosnian genocide.

===[[Social:Ethnic cleansing|Ethnic cleansing]], Refugee crisis or [[Software:Diaspora|Diaspora]]===

State collapse in most cases incurs humanitarian tragedies, ending in massive outflows of refugees and others. Africa leads the world in refugee crises, especially in Somalia and Rwanda, and elsewhere, Bosnia and Haiti.<ref> Francis Mading Deng in Collapsed States, ed I William Zartman, 1999, p207 </ref> Earlier examples include: the Flight and expulsion of Germans (1944-1950) from areas now part of Poland or Russia; the Revival Process when the People's Republic of Bulgaria collapsed; the White emigres who left Russia after the Czarist regime fell; and the South African diaspora after the collapse of apartheid.

===Reconstruction and Regime change===

Collapsed states are now expected to be rebuilt, territorially intact and along democratic lines, with the help of multilateral organizations and bilateral donors.<ref>{{cite journal | url=https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1111/1467-7660.t01-1-00258 | doi=10.1111/1467-7660.t01-1-00258 | title=Rebuilding State Institutions in Collapsed States | year=2002 | last1=Ottaway | first1=Marina | journal=Development and Change | volume=33 | issue=5 | pages=1001–1023 }}</ref> State reconstruction involves five basic elements; 1) a central political authority, 2) control of borders, 3) control of national territory, 4) sufficient control and supply of resources to maintain the state, 5) availability of state agents sufficient to execute policy.<ref> Collapsed States, ed I William Zartman, page 16 </ref> Anyone attempting this in Somalia would have to; disarm thousands of gunmen, stop the arms trafficking, set up a justice system and rebuild the economy, all against the opposition of warlords, extremists and smugglers.<ref> Ian Bremmer, The J Curve, Simon and Schuster 2006, p10</ref>

In 1946, the Diet ratified a new Constitution of Japan<ref>Takemae, Eiji 2002, p. xxxvii.</ref> The new constitution drafted by Americans allowed access and control over the Japanese military through MacArthur and the Allied occupation on Japan.<ref name=":0">{{Cite book|title=The World Transformed:1945 to the Present|last=Hunt|first=Michael|publisher=Oxford University Press|year=2013|isbn=9780199371020|pages=86}}</ref> "The political project drew much of its inspiration from the U.S. Bill of Rights, New Deal social legislation, the liberal constitutions of several European states and even the Soviet Union."<ref>Takemae, Eiji 2002, p. xxxix.</ref>

===Justice, guilt and [[Social:Denialism|Denialism]]===

Collapse may be followed by formal or informal efforts at justice, such as the Nuremberg trials and the [[Social:Truth and Reconciliation Commission (South Africa)|Truth and Reconciliation Commission (South Africa)]].<ref> Ian Bremmer, The J Curve, Simon and Schuster 2006, p157</ref> Slobodan Milosevic and Saddam Hussein were also tried in court. Germany has faced up to its German collective guilt and 'legacy of 'shame'<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.theguardian.com/film/News_Story/Critic_Review/Guardian_Film_of_the_week/0,4267,1449213,00.html | title=Downfall &#124; Reviews &#124; guardian.co.uk Film | website=TheGuardian.com }}</ref> for the Hitler years in such media portrayals as Downfall (2004 film). [[Philosophy:Denial|Denial]] has been a common reaction in post-collapse nations. In post-apartheid South Africa, white liberals were more likely to feel guilt feelings than conservatives.<ref>{{cite journal | url=https://www.academia.edu/2288682 | title=Redeeming Apartheid's Legacy: Collective Guilt, Political Ideology, and Compensation | journal=Political Psychology | year=2008 | volume=29 | issue=3 | pages=331–349 | last1=Klandermans | first1=Bert | last2=Werner | first2=Merel | last3=Van Doorn | first3=Marjoka | doi=10.1111/j.1467-9221.2008.00633.x }}</ref> Some have refused to accept responsibility for massacres, as in [[Unsolved:Holocaust denial|Holocaust denial]], the [[Unsolved:Myth of the clean Wehrmacht|Myth of the clean Wehrmacht]] and the Armenian genocide denial; a fictitious explanation for the collapse of the German Empire in 1918 was found in the Stab-in-the-back myth.

===In the longer term===

The collapse of the Ottomans in 1918 had long-term consequences, 'triggering most of the problems that plague the Middle East today'.<ref>Ali A. Allawi, 'The Ottoman Empire: the last great casualty of the first world war', The Spectator, 2 May 2015</ref> Hegemony in the Middle East has been subject to quarrels between British, French,<ref>Avi Shlaim, 'The Balfour Declaration: A Study in British Duplicity', Middle East Eye, 25 August 2017</ref> Zionist,<ref>Israel Shahak, 'Greater Israel: the Zionist Plan for the Middle East', Global Research, November 2017</ref>{{bsn|date=July 2021}} American,<ref>Andrew Green, 'Why Western Democracy can never work in the Middle East', The Daily Telegraph,16 August 2014</ref> Arab nationalist,<ref>Adeed Dawisha, 'Requiem for Arab Nationalism', Middle East Quarterly, Winter 2003</ref> Saudi and Iranian interests<ref>Syed Mansur Hashim, 'Who will rule the Middle East?', The Daily Star, 12 January 2016</ref> ever since.

Hitler, says Sebastian Haffner, 'whether we like it or not', created many features of the postwar world, including the state of Israel, the end of European empires, the division of Germany, and the joint hegemony of the US and USSR.<ref>Sebastian Haffner, The Meaning of Hitler, Phoenix, 2000, p 100</ref>

==Recent speculative predictions of state collapse==

Paul Stares and Helia Ighani say Saudi Arabia could lapse into a succession crisis and civil war if Mohammed bin Salman's accession is contested after the death of his aging father, King Salman.<ref>Paul Stares and Helia Aghani, "How Stable is Saudi Arabia?", [[Organization:Council on Foreign Relations|Council on Foreign Relations]], 15 May 2017</ref> The country could experience a 'sharp, chaotic and violent' collapse if the legitimising support of radical Muslim clerics is withdrawn<ref> Ian Bremmer, The J Curve, Simon and Schuster 2006, p104</ref>
[[Place:Lebanon|Lebanon]] and Jordan could collapse following the influx of refugees from [[Place:Syria|Syria]] and the resultant burden on infrastructure.<ref>Azeem Ibrahim, 'Lebanon and Jordan may collapse under a new wave of refugees', Al Arabiya English, 26 June 2016</ref>

According to Iranian general Reza Naqdi, the US will collapse by 2035 and the Trump presidency is hastening that process.<ref>anon, 'Israel will collapse within ten years', Israel Today, 29 November 2016</ref> Margaret MacMillan has compared President Trump to Mussolini, on the grounds that President Trump similarly seeks attention, makes grand gestures, plays the 'strong man' and seeks out enemies.<ref>Olivia Gordon, quoting Margaret MacMillan in 'Trump is no Hitler - he's a Mussolini', Oxford Today, 24 April 2017</ref>

The [[Social:European Union|European Union]] is also likely to collapse, according to the Polish president, Andrzej Duda,<ref>James Shorter, '[https://www.ft.com/content/d18b8b56-9240-11e7-bdfa-eda243196c2c Polish president warns multispeed EU will collapse]', Financial Times, 5 September 2017</ref> journalist Stephen Pollard,<ref>{{cite news |last1=Pollard |first1=Stephen |title=In a decade the EU will have fallen apart, says STEPHEN POLLARD |url=https://www.express.co.uk/comment/expresscomment/857702/brexit-news-uk-latest-theresa-may-florence-italy-speech-european-union |work=Express.co.uk |date=23 September 2017 |language=en}}</ref> German economist Thorsten Polleit,<ref>Nick Gutteridge, 'German economist predicts EU will collapse', Express, 25 August 2017</ref> a leaked German Government contingency plan,<ref>Nick Mason, '[https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/nov/06/the-germans-are-making-contingency-plans-for-the-collapse-of-europe-lets-hope-we-are-too The Germans are making contingency plans for the collapse of Europe. Let's hope we are too.]' The Guardian, 6 November 2017</ref> and 'the majority of Europeans'.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/may/15/majority-of-europeans-expect-end-of-eu-within-20-years?fbclid=IwAR3hsqUMDu900aZvfKDP-H_xHM_nZcTP58iHnfGpFpcMnHY9HmXGQsT6erQ | title=Majority of Europeans 'expect end of EU within 20 years' | website=TheGuardian.com | date=15 May 2019 }}</ref>

S Daniel Abraham anticipates the collapse of [[Place:Israel|Israel]] if the Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not resolved;<ref>S Daniel Abraham, 'How Israel will be destroyed without one shot being fired', Haaretz, 16 January 2013</ref> Iqbal Jassat compares the situation to apartheid in South Africa.<ref>Iqbal Jassat, 'Israel faces inevitable collapse of its apartheid system', Middle East Monitor 27 March 2017</ref> 

In Pakistan, Islamic militants are allegedly infiltrating the military and nuclear weapons systems. There are fears of collapse into nuclear war with India, or of chaos enabling extremists to seize weapons of mass destruction.<ref>David Leigh, "Wikileaks Cables Expose Pakistan Nuclear Fears", The Guardian, 30 November 2010.</ref> The war in Ukraine has caused Pakistan a 'perfect storm' of rising oil and grain import prices.<ref> https://nationalinterest.org/feature/pakistan%E2%80%99s-coming-collapse-should-worry-world-203545?fbclid=IwAR1qAdzgPfGrIGEq0xAp_PM4rLnrfVCTliVdZAGN5E_CuiK_PA2_LtWWHKM </ref>

Speculation about the possible Dissolution of Russia has increased since the war with Ukraine began.<ref>{{cite web | url=https://www.aei.org/op-eds/putins-war-in-ukraine-could-mean-the-collapse-of-russia/?fbclid=IwAR1QJXdS0fO2MdaUnbpjFpT5lRZybSPs-8lqUsrWjplUCG0MRP6tNO0PVmA | title=Putin's War in Ukraine Could Mean the Collapse of Russia }}</ref>

Says David Shambaugh, "We cannot predict when Chinese communism will collapse, but it is hard not to conclude that we are seeing its final phases."<ref>Xie Tao, quoting Shambaugh in "Why Do People Keep Predicting China's Collapse?', ''The Diplomat'', March 2015.</ref>

According to several sources, Myanmar, following the 2021 Myanmar coup d'etat, is on the brink of collapse<ref>{{Cite news|url=https://www.economist.com/asia/2021/04/15/myanmar-is-on-the-brink-of-collapse|title=Myanmar is on the brink of collapse|newspaper=The Economist|date=15 April 2021}}</ref> into a failed state.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Reed |first1=John |title='Economic collapse amid escalating conflict': is Myanmar becoming a failed state? |url=https://www.ft.com/content/6189a752-6f68-4d61-99ea-9e83137a1d3d |work=Financial Times |date=22 April 2021}}</ref>

In Brazil, the COVID-19 pandemic worsened the already slow economic growth of the country and exacerbated existing social issues such as [[Social:Economic inequality|economic inequality]] and high unemployment. Experts argue that if public policies are not implemented to reverse such issues, Brazil would run the risk of suffering a state collapse.<ref>{{cite web|url=https://www.otempo.com.br/opiniao/paulo-r-haddad/subscription-required-7.5927739?aId=1.2377352|date=8 August 2020|accessdate=11 August 2021|work=O Tempo|title= Um cenário de colapso social? |language=pt}}</ref>

==See also==
{{columns-list|colwidth=30em|
* [[Social:Active measures|Active measures]] (covert operations)
* Anarchy (international relations)
* ''The Anatomy of Revolution''
* [[Social:Collapsology|Collapsology]]
* [[Social:Cycle of violence|Cycle of violence]]
* [[Social:Fragile state|Fragile state]]
** Fragile States Index
* History of the Central Intelligence Agency (covert operations)
* International relations
* [[Finance:Lebanese liquidity crisis|Lebanese liquidity crisis]] 
* [[Philosophy:American decline|American decline]]
* [[Social:Power politics|Power politics]]
* Predictions of the dissolution of the Soviet Union
* [[Social:Siege mentality|Siege mentality]]
* [[Philosophy:Speaking truth to power|Speaking truth to power]]
* ''[[Social:The Tragedy of Great Power Politics|The Tragedy of Great Power Politics]]''
* Thucydides Trap
* United States involvement in regime change
}}

==Notes==
{{notelist}}

==References==
{{Reflist}}

[[Category:Comparative politics]]

{{Sourceattribution|State collapse}}